The 3 plans Biden wants from Israel

Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt

With help from Daniel Lippman

President JOE BIDEN said last night that “the Israelis are making their own decisions” on whether and how to invade Gaza. What he didn’t say was how he’s pushing Israel to develop three separate plans before launching the dangerous campaign.

Based on public reporting and conversations with six officials, who all were granted anonymity to detail sensitive discussions, Washington wants Israel to outline what governance in Gaza will look like after an invasion, how it will reduce civilian harm in dense urban environments and how to free as many hostages as possible.

U.S. and Israeli officials have pushed back strongly on the idea that Israel is waiting on a green light from Washington to launch the ground invasion. One official insisted that Israel will decide when to stream into Gaza, but noted that the U.S. would give an implicit thumbs up whenever those three requests had been satisfactorily fulfilled.

Spokespeople for the White House and the Israeli government declined to provide comment for this newsletter.

The post-invasion plan concerns are the most known, as stories in The New York Times and Financial Times show Washington isn’t convinced Israel has a path to outright victory against Hamas in the enclave of 2.3 million people. As one person familiar told the FT: “There is no plan for the ‘day after’ … The Americans went crazy when they realized there was no plan.”

NatSec Daily is hearing this, too, with administration officials placing pressure on Israel to explain whether its forces will stay behind after rooting out Hamas or if it has other potential leaders in mind. Until that is laid out along with ideas for how to provide food, water, electricity and shelter to hundreds of thousands of displaced people, “we remain unconvinced” that Israel should launch its invasion now, one of the U.S. officials said.

There are also intense conversations about how the invasion should go. Initial Israeli plans were to launch an all-out assault with tanks rolling over the border. But, increasingly, conversations are turning to a more counterterrorism-centric approach with a heavy reliance on special forces.

The arrival of U.S. Lt. Gen. JAMES GLYNN, who led the Marines’ special operations and took part in anti-ISIS fighting in Iraq, in Israel could hint at how the administration wants the Israel Defense Forces to fight. Glynn is leading a team of special operations forces with deep experience in urban combat and other relevant expertise “to help Israeli officials think through the kinds of questions that they need to consider as they conduct their planning,” said Pentagon spokesperson Brig. Gen. PATRICK RYDER on Tuesday.

Part of that advice includes conveying best practices and lessons learned from the United States’ more than two decades of fighting in the Middle East on how to reduce harm to civilians during an operation, according to one senior DOD official.

The push comes as there’s growing skepticism in Washington that Israel can achieve its goal of a military defeat of Hamas, not least because Hamas has had years to booby trap Gaza and the sheer difficulty of urban warfare.

Then there’s a broader concern that heavy fighting in Gaza will make Hamas less likely to release hostages. The militant group has so far let four out of roughly 200 go, but talks to free a large number are underway, CNN reports. It’s possible that Hamas will use them as leverage as fighting intensifies, potentially even using the hostages as human shields. That has multiple U.S. officials urging Israel to get as many hostages released as possible before the invasion starts.

One of the primary reasons Israel has delayed the ground offensive is to exhaust all efforts to get the hostages out, said one Israeli official.

“We think Hamas is playing a game, but we want to make sure before going in,” the official said.

There are other aspects the U.S. brings up in multiple conversations, such as keeping Iran-linked Hezbollah from opening a second front in Israel’s north and how to get Americans out of the Middle East if the war widens.

But if Washington gets a clear answer to their three main requests, then it’s possible Israel would soon thereafter — as long expected — send its troops into Gaza.

The Inbox

ANOTHER REASON FOR THE DELAY: Israel has agreed to delay its ground invasion of the Gaza Strip for the time being so the U.S. can get air defenses in place to protect its troops in the region, U.S. and Israeli officials told The Wall Street Journal.

The Defense Department is working fast to get about a dozen air defense systems ready to protect troops in Iraq, Syria, Kuwait, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates from airstrikes, the officials said. The systems could be set up later this week.

Troops’ safety is a growing concern for the Pentagon, as two dozen members were injured in attacks on U.S. bases in the region over the past week, The Washington Post’s DAN LAMOTHE reported Tuesday night. Several troops have reported symptoms of traumatic brain injury following rocket and drone attacks launched by Iran proxies over the past week, two U.S. officials with knowledge told Lara today.

Biden gave a stark warning to Iranian leadership today: “My warning to the Ayatollah was that if they continue to move against those troops, we will respond. And he should be prepared,” he told reporters, per our own ERIC BAZAIL-EIMIL.

Meanwhile, the conflict’s toll on Palestinians worsened today as only eight of 20 humanitarian aid trucks made it into Gaza overnight, with the remaining dozen still under inspection by Israel, The New York Times’ MATTHEW ROSENBERG and NADAV GAVRIELOV report. Wide-scale Israeli airstrikes on the territory continued as a dozen of Gaza’s 35 hospitals stopped functioning, and another seven major facilities were over capacity.

Meanwhile, leaders from the Hamas, Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad militant groups met today to discuss how they could achieve an “all-out victory” against Israel, Al Jazeera reports.

Hostages taken by Hamas following its surprise attack remain a critical factor in the conflict. Qatar has stepped in to help negotiate releases, with Prime Minister SHEIKH MOHAMMED BIN ABDULRAHMAN AL-THANI telling reporters today he’s “hopeful” there will be a breakthrough with the hostage situation soon, Reuters’ ANDREW MILLS, NAYERA ABDALLAH and MAHA EL DAHAN report.

Read: Biden is worried about wider war in the Middle East. Here’s how it could happen by our own NAHAL TOOSI, Lara and PAUL McLEARY.

BIDEN’S UKRAINE PUSH: The White House has been quietly urging lawmakers in both parties to sell the war efforts abroad as a potential economic boom at home, our own JONATHAN LEMIRE and JENNIFER HABERKORN report.

Aides have been distributing talking points to Democrats and Republicans who have been supportive of continued efforts to fund Ukraine’s resistance to make the case that doing so is good for American jobs, five White House aides and lawmakers told our colleagues.

The push comes ahead of the election of a new House speaker, with the White House trying to invoke patriotism to help convince holdout Republicans not just to help Kyiv but also to pass a major package that includes funds for Israel as well.

“As we replenish our stocks of weapons, we are partnering with the U.S. defense industry to increase our capacity and meet the needs of the U.S. and our allies both now and in the future,” according to a copy of the talking points obtained by Jonathan and Jennifer.

NOTHING TO SEE HERE: Top Azerbaijani officials rejected claims that a new conflict with Armenia is imminent, denying speculation that it might use force on the neighboring nation again soon, our own GABRIEL GAVIN reports.

Azerbaijan’s Foreign Minister JEYHUN BAYRAMOV said that “there are real chances for the conclusion of a peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia within a short period of time” after Azerbaijan took control of the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh last month in a lightning war. He spoke with Russian counterparts on Tuesday about the issue.

The proposed agreement would end three decades of conflict that has dragged in global powers like Russia, the EU and U.S. — while flying in the face of speculation Azerbaijan could use military force to secure a strategically important transport corridor inside Armenia.

NEWSOM IN CHINA: California Gov. GAVIN NEWSOM met with Chinese paramount leader XI JINPING today in Beijing, in the latest sign of thawing U.S-China relations amid rising geopolitical conflicts, our own BLANCA BEGERT reports. The trip should pave the way for a meeting between Biden and Xi at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit in San Francisco next month in Newsom’s hometown.

Read: Gavin Newsom’s guide to China travel by our own PHELIM KINE.

IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at [email protected] and [email protected], and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33.

While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.

2024

EVANGELICALS FOR ISRAEL: Foreign policy normally isn’t a major consideration for voters in presidential elections, but GOP candidates’ support for Israel is shaping up to play a big part in early battleground states.

After talking with more than a dozen Iowa conservative activists, The Associated Press’ THOMAS BEAUMONT found that backing Israel’s fight against Hamas has become a top priority for evangelicals in the Republican presidential caucuses that are less than three months away.

It’s a conflict steeped in religion, with Christians and evangelicals often drawing their support for Israel from Old Testament writings and prophecies about Israel. Because of that, faith leaders and rank-and-file caucus participants have been keeping a close eye on GOP candidates’ statements — and telling their congregations to consider candidates’ stances when deciding at the ballot box.

Keystrokes

CHALLENGE CHINA: Sen. ERIC SCHMITT (R-Miss.) is urging the Pentagon to launch more offensive cyber operations to deter Chinese hackers — or prove to Congress it’s doing plenty of that already, our friends at Morning Cybersecurity (for Pros!) report.

In a letter sent on Oct. 17, the first-term senator requests a briefing by mid-November from Cyber Command Lt. Gen. TIMOTHY HAUGH on any “previous, current or future plans” to disrupt the Chinese hacking group responsible for a recent breach of top U.S. officials’ emails from the State and Commerce departments and Congress.

Schmitt argues in the letter that “forceful deterrence in cyberspace” is key to bolstering U.S. defenses, and that the Pentagon must do more to demonstrate that it is implementing its recently unveiled cyber strategy, which outlined the command’s intention to proactively operate inside adversary networks. “These types of attacks must not go unanswered,” the letter reads.

He also wrote an op-ed about the topic in The Hill today.

The Complex

FIGHTER JET TRAINING BEGINS: A small number of Ukrainian pilots began training to fly the F-16 fighter jet at the 162nd Wing of the Arizona Air National Guard this week, the Air Force’s main F-16 training hub, an Air Force spokesperson told Lara.

The pilots are expected to learn the basics of operating the jet in the classroom and in simulators before moving on to actual flying, as is typical for any Air Force pilot training program. While the training is expected to last several months, each pilot’s individual curriculum will be tailored to their foundational knowledge and skills, said the spokesperson.

On the Hill

F FOR UKRAINE: Rep. MIKE JOHNSON (R-La.) was elected to be the next speaker of the House today, and the news may not go over well with Ukraine’s staunchest supporters.

Johnson hasn’t always supported sending billions to the embattled country, scoring an F rating — the lowest possible grade — on the Republicans for Ukraine advocacy group report card, which keeps tabs on lawmakers’ statements and support for aid.

The Louisiana Republican was opposed to large packages from the beginning, saying in May 2022 after voting against sending $40 billion in aid to Ukraine that Congress shouldn’t be helping so much “when our own border is in chaos, American mothers are struggling to find baby formula, gas prices are at record highs and American families are struggling to make ends meet, without sufficient oversight over where the money will go.”

By comparison, Reps. KEVIN McCARTHY (R-Calif.) received a B-, STEVE SCALISE (R-La.) scored a B and TOM EMMER (R-Minn.) got an A.

Ukrainian politicians, at least publicly, don’t seem too worried about the new speaker.

“Whoever the American people or their representatives choose, we will work with them and look forward to fruitful cooperation,” YEHOR CHERNIEV, deputy chair of Ukraine’s parliamentary committee on national security, defense and intelligence, told NatSec Daily before the speakership vote.

An argument American lawmakers will hear from Ukrainians, he added, is that “the war in Ukraine, Israel and other parts of the world where it will soon inevitably break out are links in one chain, one global plan of Russian and the autocracies that support it.”

RIP: BERTIE BOWMAN, the longest-serving African-American congressional staffer in history, died this morning at 92 years old. He was the longtime hearings manager for the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and served under 16 chairs (h/t Punchbowl News’ ANDREW DESIDERIO).

Broadsides

WESTERN ‘DOUBLE STANDARD’: Jordan’s Queen RANIA AL ABDULLAH accused Western countries of displaying a “glaring double standard,” arguing they haven’t condemned Israel’s deadly bombardment of Gaza enough.

Jordan and other Middle Eastern countries are “just shocked and disappointed by the world’s reaction to this catastrophe that is unfolding. In the last couple of weeks, we have seen a glaring double standard in the world,” she told CNN’s CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR today. “We’re seeing in the last couple of weeks, we’re seeing silence in the world.”

Since Hamas’ surprise attack on Oct. 7, Biden and other Western leaders have urged Israel to minimize civilian casualties as it retaliates, but haven’t condemned the nation for its deadly campaign. Some 1,400 people were killed on Israeli soil in the initial attack, while the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry reports that more than 6,500 Palestinians have been killed since.

“This is the first time in modern history that there is such human suffering and the world is not even calling for a ceasefire,” Rania added.

Helpful read: Why news outlets and the U.N. rely on Gaza’s Health Ministry for death tolls by The Washington Post’s ADAM TAYLOR.

MEDIATOR NO MORE: Turkish President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOĞAN piled on today, saying Israel is committing atrocities against civilians as it steps up its military operations in Gaza, Gabriel also reports.

His explosive remarks appeared to pull him away from earlier ambitions of acting as a mediator in the crisis: “We had plans to travel to Israel. It has been canceled — we will not go,” he said in a speech. “I invite all other countries with reason and conscience to put pressure on the … government to return the state of Israel to sanity.”

At the same time, in a major break with NATO allies, Erdoğan insisted that Palestinian militant group Hamas “is not a terrorist organization, but a group of freedom and mujahideen [warriors] who are striving to protect their lands and their citizens.”

Read: U.K.’s Sunak urges ‘specific pauses’ in Israel-Hamas war, stops short of ceasefire by our own BETHANY DAWSON.

Transitions

— LeANNE NOELANI HOWARD is now special adviser for the NATO Summit at the NSC, coordinating planning for the 75th NATO Summit in Washington next year. She most recently was senior strategy and policy adviser at NATO Special Operations Forces headquarters.

— MAXINE BURKETT is now assistant director for climate, ocean, and equity at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. She most recently was deputy assistant secretary for oceans, fisheries and polar affairs at the State Department.

What to Read

— ELISABETH BRAW, Foreign Policy: The war with Hamas could threaten Israel’s imports

— Congressional Budget Office: Long-term implications of the 2024 Future Years Defense Program

— GRAEME WOOD, The Atlantic: ‘You started a war, you’ll get a Nakba’

Tomorrow Today

— The House Financial Services Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee, 9 a.m.: Moving the money: Understanding the Iranian regime’s access to money around the world and how they use it to support terrorism

— The United States Institute of Peace, the National Endowment for Democracy, the International Foundation for Electoral Systems, 10 a.m.: Expanding Ukraine’s democratic and electoral progress during war

— The Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee, 10 a.m.: Combating the networks of illicit finance and terrorism

— The Wilson Center Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies, 11:30 a.m.: Nagorno-Karabakh: humanitarian, geographic and geopolitical considerations for the broader region

— The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 11:30 a.m.: The Israel-Hamas conflict: What comes after?

— The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, 12 p.m.: The Gaza war and U.S. Middle East policy: appraising the Biden administration

— The George Washington University Sigur Center for Asian Studies, 12:30 p.m.: Book discussion on “Japan’s Prisoners of Conscience: Protest and Law during the Iraq War”

— New America, 7 p.m.: The future of irregular warfare

— Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, 11 a.m.: Under the grip of authoritarian nationalism

Thanks to our editor, Emma Anderson, who never lets us make our own decisions.

We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who always makes the right decisions.