There's panic in the air for New York Democrats. Mobilizing voters less than two weeks before the midterm elections could be seen as excessively cautious, or a recognition of real danger. An explosive poll was released on Friday, October 21. For the first time, the outgoing governor, Democrat Kathy Hochul, 64, was losing by a hair to her Republican opponent, Lee Zeldin, 42, with 45.3% and 45.6% of the vote, respectively. "Red wave," read the front page of the New York Post, a Murdoch-group tabloid: "Zeldin and Hochul now tied in race for governor."
To be sure, polls still give an average lead of 7.4 points to Ms. Hochul, who succeeded Andrew Cuomo in the summer of 2021 after he was forced to resign amidst accusations of sexual harassment. Democrats have a major advantage, with nearly 6.5 million registered voters against 2.8 million Republicans in the state of New York (19.8 million inhabitants, including 8.5 million in New York City). Nevertheless, it is now time to mobilize in a state that has had a Democratic governor since 2006.
Democrats are finding that campaigning on abortion, which is no longer a constitutional right after the Supreme Court reversed Roe v. Wade summer, is not enough. The issue of crime is taking center stage with a vengeance. The number of murders in the city, 488 in 2021, has jumped 67% from its low in 2017. While the number of homicides is down 15% since the beginning of 2022, the subject remains a major concern, especially since other crimes (rape, burglary, assault) have increased by 30%.
Nine dead in the subway
The subway has been the scene of nine high-profile murders since January, up from an average of two a year before the Covid-19 pandemic. A 15-year-old, Jayjon Burnett, was shot and killed on a train in Far Rockaway, a Queens neighborhood near John F. Kennedy Airport, on the afternoon of October 14, and a video of the homicide was released by the New York Post. "Crime is out of control in our city right now," said Charlton D'souza, president of Passengers United, a transit advocacy group. Crimes are often committed by unstable people who were denied psychiatric care during the health crisis.
In emergency mode, Ms. Hochul and New York City's Democratic mayor, African-American former police officer Eric Adams, announced a plan to increase security in the subway system. The two have shared jurisdiction over transportation, law and order, and justice, and are working together smoothly, unlike their predecessors, although Mr. Adams is tougher on crime. The Republican candidate, Mr. Zeldin, took advantage of this initiative to issue a statement criticizing his opponent: "For Kathy Hochul, it wasn’t the nine subway deaths that drove her to action. [...] It wasn’t New Yorkers feeling unsafe on our streets, on our subways and in their homes. For Kathy Hochul, all it took for her to announce a half-ass, day late, dollar short plan was a bad poll."
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