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The ANC is worried that load shedding could be the final straw that will drop its support to below 50% for the first time in an election.
Outraged protesters complaining about power outages last week could disrupt President Cyril Ramaphosa and Deputy President David Mabuza’s campaigns to garner votes for the ANC, while party sources fear that the introduction of stage 4 load shedding this past Wednesday could drive middle-class voters to other parties.
An ANC source close to the presidency told City Press:
“Our [internal] polls have already not looked good in the [Gauteng] metros, so it does not bode well for Monday,” said the source.
Wherever ANC leaders went on their “apology tour” over the past week, where they spoke of weak government, voters wanted to talk about only one thing – lack of electricity.
Before the ANC’s last rally in Soweto, residents burnt tyres on Friday to block the road to the gathering in Thokoza Park. They said they’d had no electricity for five days.
“The ANC can come and run its campaign when they turn on our electricity again,” Lerato Mokoena, one of the protesters, told News24.
The ANC summoned the police to remove the protesters.
When Ramaphosa arrived in Ekurhuleni on Thursday, the day after Eskom introduced stage 4 load shedding, protesters warned him on posters: “No power, no vote!”
READ: Residents say no electricity, no voting
After he initially avoided the media’s questions about the power crisis, Ramaphosa turned to the crowd and said: “This thing of ‘no electricity, no vote’ must stop now. If you do not vote ANC then your electricity will never be restored. Which other party do you trust to ensure that your electricity is restored?”
Ramaphosa was also bombarded with questions about power shortages in Meadowlands, Soweto, on Monday, while in Orange Farm protesters also said the ANC could forget about their votes until the lights are on again.
The president promised that not only could the ANC restore their power, but the party is “renewing”.
This made little impression on the inhabitants of Diepkloof, who told City Press that they would prevent polling stations from opening.
READ: Diepkloof residents threaten polling station shutdown
Even Mabuza, who leads Eskom’s war room, was heckled in Ekurhuleni.
He admitted to being worried that the power problems were bedevilling the ANC’s campaign.
“It affects our campaign because the people are complaining about electricity. I am just keeping my fingers crossed in the hope that Kusile and Medupi [power stations] will come fully online and that our situation will improve,” Mabuza said during a speech.
In September, Ramaphosa’s sister, Ivy, had to call police to her home in Chiawelo, Soweto, when protesters ordered her to “call your brother” during an unplanned power outage so that their power supply could be restored.
The anger over power outages, as well as the ANC’s demands these days that consumers pay for power, make the party fear that, as in 2016, it will not get a 50% majority in any Gauteng metro.
The ANC currently controls Ekurhuleni thanks to the cooperation of the African Independent Congress (AIC), Pan-African Congress, Patriotic Alliance and the Independent Ratepayers’ Association of SA.
In Johannesburg, the ANC governs with the support of the IFP, UDM, Cope, AIC and Al Jama-ah.
As for the power crisis, however, one man’s bread is another man’s poison.
DA sources described load shedding on Thursday as “manna from heaven” for their election campaign, especially because the party proclaims that the DA “wants to end load shedding”.
Cilliers Brink, DA spokesperson on local government, confirmed on Monday that the DA had “repeatedly started rolling out” its election material on load shedding in the past few days to remind voters.
Theo Venter, political analyst at North-West University, says the ANC’s biggest challenge with this election is to keep its national support above 50%.
“Load shedding could be the reason the ANC falls below 50%, while it could also be the reason the DA remains above 20%,” Venter said.
Polls also show that the ANC’s support could fall below 50% in eThekwini.
Panic in the ANC emerged on Wednesday from a press statement in which ANC spokesperson Pule Mabe claimed that someone in Eskom was trying to undermine the ANC “for political purposes”.
READ: ANC blasts Eskom for load shedding, suspects it is playing politics
Load shedding was suspended at 8pm on Friday night after Public Enterprises Minister Pravin Gordhan promised on Wednesday that there would be no load shedding on voting day.
However, Doug Kuni, an independent power consultant, has warned that Eskom “is no longer able to provide such guarantees”.
Eskom chief operating officer Jan Oberholzerof confirmed on Friday night that although he believes that load shedding is over for the time being, the power network is still under enormous pressure.
Only 100 mobile generators have been made available by Eskom to be deployed at polling stations.
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