Photo: GCIS
Photo: GCIS
If you’ve been keeping a close ear on Cabinet over the past few days, then you’ll be aware that all signs point towards progress. It’s highly likely that we will see some lockdown laws eased by the end of the week – but the possibility of advancing towards Level 2 remains on the table, even if it is an outside bet.
Lockdown latest: Restrictions ‘likely to be relaxed’ this week
It’s understood that the National Coronavirus Command Council (NCCC) will meet this week to discuss how a number of regulations can be relaxed. For the first time in two months, South Africa can perhaps enjoy a more optimistic outlook about what the future holds.
Although the government has stayed tight-lipped about what could change this week, South Africans have some requests: The sale of alcohol and tobacco remains the biggest talking point, and there’s the potential to lift our nighttime curfew again. But what factors will decide if Mzansi can advance?
Level 2 or something else? The factors that will be considered
Three of the worst-affected provinces are past the surge
Several experts – including Debbie Bradshaw, a chief specialist scientist at the South African Medical Research Council – have publicly stated that COVID-19 has already peaked in the Western Cape, Gauteng and Eastern Cape. With these hot-spots cooling down, the chances of us seeing Level 2 sometime soon have increased.
The daily infection rate ‘has halved within two weeks’
South Africa recorded almost 14 000 new infections in one day just a fortnight ago (24 July). Now, the current rate of infection stands at 7 000 – 8 000. That’s a massive drop-off in such a short space of time.
We have an impressive rate of recovery
Not only is South Africa’s mortality rate below the global average, but recovery numbers are between 70-75%. Essentially, about three-quarters of all coronavirus cases reported in SA have been resolved. This data is essential for arguing in favour of a move towards Level 2 of lockdown.
The use of dexamethasone ahead of Level 2
Every little helps: The introduction of the first drug known to hamper COVID-19 has reduced intensive care deaths by a quarter since it was introduced on June 16, according to a report in the Sunday Times. With a notable, effective treatment in place, the risk of mortality is ever so slightly blunted.
An economy on the brink may require Level 2 intervention
Although Cabinet has not yet been swayed by the ‘economic argument’, South Africa is very much on the verge of the abyss right now. There is a desperation to reopen battered sections of the economy, and according to Political economist Daniel Silke, there is literally no time left to waste:
“On an individual level, many millions of people will be without jobs. We will see a surge in poverty, hunger and hardship. We will see thousands of businesses closing down because they are bankrupt.”
The fate of the country could rest on KwaZulu-Natal
More than likely, any decision to ease the rules – or move forward towards Level 2 – will be based on what we see from KZN this week. The province is shifting towards ‘epicentre’ territory, following devastating waves in other provinces. Infections are rising sharply here, and the government will be reluctant to lift restrictions if there’s a serious outbreak in one of its largest provinces. The next few days will be absolutely crucial.
